2327 國巨(Yageo)｜20260612｜MS

PDF 原檔：2327 國巨(Yageo)｜20260612｜MS_original.pdf

原始內容

M June 12, 2026 04:00 PM GMT

Yageo Corp. | Asia Pacific

AI-Driven Demand Is Beginning to Tighten MLCC Supply

We underappreciated the second-order effects on the broader MLCC market. As Cloud AI absorbs an increasing share of industry capacity, tightening supply conditions will likely lead to lengthening lead-times and improved pricing across the broader MLCC market.

We are beginning to see pricing move higher, particularly in mid- and low-

capacitance MLCC categories. Spot pricing for a number of 0201 and 0402 MLCCs (1µF and below) has already increased meaningfully, with certain SKUs experiencing multi-fold price increases. Importantly, these observations primarily reflect distributor and spot-market pricing rather than the contractual pricing that major MLCC suppliers charge direct customers. Historically, distributor pricing has tended to react first during periods of supply tightness. During the 2018 MLCC upcycle, spot-market pricing for certain products increased by as much as 10x at peak levels. While current conditions remain well below those extremes, continued lead-time extensions could support further spot-price appreciation.

We are also observing direct-customer price increases among several MLCC suppliers, with reported increases of up to ~30% for select mid- and low-end MLCC categories. As industry lead-times continue to lengthen, we believe additional suppliers, including Yageo, are likely to pursue similar pricing actions.

Within higher-capacitance MLCC categories, pricing trends have been more

mixed. We understand that pricing for products in the 10µF-22µF range has already moved higher, while pricing for 47µF+ MLCCs has remained relatively stable thus far. In our view, this reflects the more strategic and contract-based nature of the high-capacitance MLCC market, where supply tightening is often expressed initially through allocation and lead-time extensions before broader price increases emerge. That said, our channel checks indicate lead times for high-capacitance MLCCs are also beginning to extend. We continue to hear reports of ODMs actively seeking to secure additional supply and increase allocation commitments amid growing concerns around future availability. In our view, this behavior is consistent with an increasingly tight supply-demand environment and may serve as an early indicator of further pricing pressure as the market progresses through the cycle.

Reiterate OW with a new PT of NT$1,355, implying ~32x CY28 P/E, above the 5Y range of 8-18x. However, PEG is only 0.8x. In our view, Yageo offers an attractive way to gain exposure to this theme given its scale, broad product portfolio across all passive components, and leverage to an improving industry cycle.

Idea

Yageo Corp. (2327.TW, 2327 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Stock Rating

Overweight In-Line

Industry View

Price target

NT$1,355.00

Up/downside to price target (%)

58

Shr price, close (Jun 12, 2026)

NT$855.00

52-Week Range

NT$919.00-111.75

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

1,997

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

NT$1,707,318

EV, curr (mn)

NT$1,724,058

Avg daily trading value (mn)

NT$11,771

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

• ** = Based on consensus methodology
• § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
• e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

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